Page – Australia 2025

The Independent hurt Labor more here by looks in the drop of the primary vote, this seat seems to have moved away from being competitive. I would say national hold as Labor will be busy sandbagging other electorate and trying to win more competitive electorates.

Sorry I mean National hold

This isn’t even a bellwether anymore, it’s becoming a safe Nationals seat like the rest of the North Coast and the Mid North Coast.

The only thing keeping the Labor anywhere close is the vote in Lismore which I assume is because of the University. A redistribution or an increase to parliament could cut that margin and if Hogan retires labor might be within a shot.

Really poor form of the AEC to split the Coffs LGA even more – Korora and the northern beaches are people who are connected to Coffs Harbour, and have zero commonality with Grafton/Lismore/Casino. Hogan drives down to Woolgoolga once every three years for a photo op then ignores the southern end after the election. Coffs LGA needs to be entirely in ONE electorate.

Unfortunately the numbers just don’t add up to do that but agree

Makes me wonder if we’ll someday see Coffs Harbour split along Coffs Creek.

Depending on what happens in Richmond new England it might be possible to remove Coffs harbour altogether and put it into Cowper entirely. That wat port Macquarie could be moved entirely into lyne

Kevin Hogan has been elected as deputy Nationals leader in the recent party room meeting.

Congratulations to Kevin Hogan on being elected deputy leader of the Nationals!

Kevin is a great MP and I’m sure he and David Littleproud will make a great leadership team.

This seat is interesting as per Nether Portal’s list it is the only seat in the country that has a booth over 80% TPP for Coalition and Labor being Clovass and Nimbin respectively.
It is also interesting that the area around Lismore has many vegan restaurants yet Casino in the seat is the Beef Capital of Australia.

Rockhampton would beg to differ

@ real talk
good point. However, it is intersting that Casino and Lismore are in the same seat and so close toegether.

@Nimalan the reason for the 80% booth difference:

* Clovass is a tiny rural town just east of Casino (though the booth address says McKees Hill which is a little bit further east and has less than 300 people)
* Nimbin is a pretty well known town for the reason that it’s the cannabis capital of Australia and has a Greens vote of 53.1%, so very hippie and alternative
* The Channon is a hippie town with a Greens vote of 58.2%

Nimbin and The Channon (as well as presumably the other hippie towns) had huge swings to the Greens this time because independent Hanabeth Luke didn’t contest (Luke won those booths last time).

So while Clovass/McKees Hill is a small town that has a lot of rural properties (presumably a lot of beef cattle farming given the Casino and Rockhampton areas are the beef capitals of Australia and Casino is where Beef Week is hosted), Nimbin and The Channon are alternative communities.

Another interesting thing about this seat is Woolgoolga has a Sikh temple and is 17.2% Sikh. Gurmesh Singh (the member for Coffs Harbour) is from Woolgoolga and is Sikh (hence his surname).

@ Nether Portal
Yes the reason i mentioned Casino instead of Rockhampton is because it so close to an area which is socially very differrent to the Alternative communities of the Nimbin and The Channon. I have never been to the North coast of NSW so i dont have personal experience but keen to to know if you have visited any of these areas.
Yes Page is one of two seats in Australia where Sikhism is the main minority region the other being Kennedy.

@Nimalan absolutely I have, many times.

Casino is a big town based on beef. It’s not on the highway unlike Grafton is (or at least was, now it’s been bypassed). Same goes for Kyogle, it’s not on the highway so you don’t really go near it.

Grafton and Lismore are regional cities with Grafton having a sizeable Aboriginal population. Grafton is also home to both a jail and a juvenile detention centre (juvie). Maclean is near Grafton just closer to the highway.

Of the smaller towns, Nana Glen is a small town best known for the fact that Russell Crowe (the actor) owns a property there. Woolgoolga is a beach town with a Sikh temple and banana plantations. Yamba is also a beach town but more touristy same as Iluka but it’s less touristy than Yamba. Evans Head is another beachside town best known for being directly west of Norfolk Island.

@ NP

Thanks for sharing your insights. Macqurie also has a big range of booth results and i posted there as well.

Evans Head is best known as a bombing range – called Evans Head Air Weapons Range. There is also an Aircraft Museum in the town.

Casino is a major dairying centre [Norco]. Older dairy cows become beef cattle when their milk output drops.
At one time the co-ops only issued contracts for cream and the skim was fed to pigs. There was a large bacon factory on the road to Bangalow in Byron Bay, closed by the Fraser Government’s insistence on shutting wooden plants.
A big issue the locals had with the “Greenies” is they agitated to shut down the calves industry on humanitarian grounds. This industry supported dairying, and eployment in the region.
Similar happened in Gympie, activists later shut down the hardwood sawmills,

@ Gympe
Interesting, I am guessing Nimbin changed when the Aquarius Festival started. When did Byron Bay start to change and what was the Catalyst i know Whaling was once an industry there.

@Nimalan – The demise of meatworks and whaling industry which had been cornerstones of Byron Bay had begun in the late 1960s as it was beginning to give the town a negative reputation. At the same time a lot of surfers moved in who lived on the beaches, they made it into a popular tourist destination. It was the Aquarius Festival in 1973 (same as Nimbin) when a lot of hippies found Byron Bay, seeing its natural beauty and the idea of living in the hinterland areas appealed well to a lot of them. In recent years a lot of cashed-up people have balanced out the hippies and surfers who are much poorer.

Today it is quite popular with hippies due to the laidback lifestyle. There’s a lot of meditation/yoga classes, new-age shops and holistic wellness retreats which fuel the vibe here. A lot of the residents, especially hippies, are quite environmentally-concious. I feel the disdain towards the industries that used to exist is a cause for a lot of this sentiment.

@James you’ve hit the nail on the head there mate. Lots of hippie shops in Byron, but lots of inner-city people moved up there so it’s less of a hippie town now compared to nearby places like Lennox Head or Nimbin.

@ James/Nether Portal
Great insights. While many inner city people have moved to Byron Bay they have nor really changed its political complexion even if grew wealthier as they are still socially progressive. For example opposition to a McDonalds in Byron Bay.
If the meatworks/Whaling Industry existed it would have been White Working class still and maybe ONP would be doing well there.

@Nimalan,
Before trucks, transport was by rail, and the station was at Byron Bay. There was an exit from dairying around 1970, the local councils allowed the cockies to subdivide the vacant farms into 40 acre blocks.
Land was never cheap in Byron Bay, as far as I know, but it was undervalued. That ended around 1978 when large houses were built overlooking Wategos, then the late John Cornell built a mansion up there.
Reasons for the Dairy Industry failing depend on who you talk to, but my non-expert opinion is the Federal Government undoing the Regulation that tied the price of Margarine to the price of Butter. There was an Ad campaign on TV and radio, it went on for a couple of years. Once butter couldn’t compete anymore, that was it for the dairy farms.
At the time[1969], all east coast governments, plus the Federal Governent were coalitions [except Victoria, but Bolte was a farmer], yet they threw their own strong supporters under a bus over a stupid ad campaign aimed at housewives.
Possibly why it’s counterparts in U.S and U.K. are called The Stupid Party, because that was pretty stupid.

Do people think this seat would be competitive if it was a generic Nat against Labor? I figured maybe this cycle if it were Janelle Saffin? Or has this seat become safe Nats for the foreseeable future?

I think we need sometime before we make that conclusion maybe it is now a Safe Coalition seat. Once Kevin Hogan retires i think we can say for sure if it is now like Calare. Maybe it is no longer competative but i am not sure many people thought Braddon will never be won by Labor. I once said Labor may need to wait until 2042 to win Braddon but it took much less than that. For example after Whitlam lost Braddon in the 1975 landslide it took until 1998 for Labor to win it back same with Braddon (Darwin) in 1917 after the split. It took until 1955 to win it back.

The situation in Calare is quite different to that in Page.
The member for Calare moved to the cross bench, and contested the next election as an independent, with an endorsed National Party candidate running against him.
The member for Page moved to the cross bench in 2018. He has contested 3 elections since then. Despite claiming to be ‘an independent’, he has had the word ‘Nationals’ next to him on the ballot paper, and there hasn’t been an endorsed National Party candidate running against him.

@ Watson Watch
What i meant was that Calare used to be a seat that Labor won in the past. However, there has been demographic change namely closure of Coal mines around Lithgow which has meant that the seat has trended rightwards. The other seats such as Moreton, Lilley and Perth which are trending leftwards eventhough historically Liberals were strong. I am not sure if Page is permenently lost for Labor.

Also great point about Evans Head above

Nimalan,
Thanks for your reply.

The Division of Calare has moved around a lot over the years. Labor held Calare from 1940 to 1946. At that time Calare was Orange, Parkes, and Forbes. Calare returned to the coalition in 1946 and remained a safe coalition seat for the next 36 years.
In 1977, when the 20% rural weighting was removed, Calare gained Bathurst and Lithgow from Macquarie for the first time.

When the National Party lost Calare in 1983, in my opinion, there appeared to be three things at play. Firstly, Australia was in a major recession – inflation and unemployment were both over 10% and interest rates were over 20%. Secondly, the sitting MP for Calare wasn’t a very good MP. Thirdly, the Labor candidate appears to have been campaigning continuously for 6 years.

It took another 24 years, and a redistribution which moved the seat a long way west, for the National Party to regain Calare.

I suspect the current member for Calare will remain for as long as he wants. What happens after that depends on the boundaries. Calare will either keep expanding in area, or be abolished.

I think looking at the overlapping state results in the seats of Clarence and Coffs Harbour it looks like it’s gone for Labor.

The state Nationals are getting over 50% of the primary vote in Casino and Grafton. Even Baryulgil which is an Aboriginal community votes heavily for the Nationals.

There’s very little chance Labor will ever regain it especially if Lismore is redistributed out or if it trends Nationals when Janelle Saffin retires which I think it will. And with Kevin Hogan as MP it’s as safe as Lyne and recent elections are showing that regional and rural areas are only getting better, not worse, for the Coalition.

@ Nether Portal
Clarence has been held by Labor in the past but not Coffs Harbour. You may be correct but i just want to wait for sometime to be firm in my conclusion. Capricornia may also be gone for Labor but i need to wait for sometime. I dont think Lindsay is gone forever. There is a lot of population growth for example the newest suburb Jordan Springs which is CALD had a 9% Swing to Labor. There is a new Rail line being built which will attract population growth and St Marys which is the poorest part may become a spillover of Mount Druitt and attract poor ethnic voters and become stronger for Labor

@Nimalan
Here’s a history of the various industries that sustained Byron Bay up to around 1983: https://byronbayhistoricalsociety.org.au/development-of-byron-bay/population/

@Nimalan I think most regional seats are gone for Labor to be honest. Bass and Braddon both have major urban centres relative to Tasmania’s population.

Coffs Harbour is bigger than Burnie and Devonport but it’s less prominent relative to the state population because NSW is so much bigger in area and population than Tassie (indeed Newcastle is bigger than Tassie in population).

That being said I don’t think the state seat of Braddon will elect more Labor members than Liberal members any time soon nor do I think Labor will get the most votes there. Therefore it’s kinda gone in that sense.

@ Nether Portal
I think you are correct but i am not confident enough yet. Hume and Riverina (Different boundaries) were once held by Labor but even if you use 1972 boundaries there is no way Labor could have won those seats in 2025. Braddon was said to be lost forever but did not turn out to be the case. However, i get your point. Leichardt is different to other regional QLD seats so it was able to be won. I still think Lindsay/Longman can be won someday by Labor as they are growth areas so will see demographic change.

Nimalan,
I posted a response regarding Calare. It was on a different computer and has ended up in moderation. Hopefully it will appear at some stage.

A few weeks ago, I make a post in a different thread explaining when and why Labor had won Page, Clarence, and Casino.

Nimalan I reckon if they’d put more resources in they’d have won both this time.

@ Watson Watch
Yes you gave some good insights on the thread below regardng Page and the importance of local issues. For this reason i cannot say conclusively yet that Labor can never win Page/Capricornia again.
https://www.tallyroom.com.au/60634/comment-page-1#comment-844920

@ Clarinet of Communists
Are you referring to the fact Labor could have won Page if they put more effort.

No sorry I should’ve been more clear, I meant Lindsay and Longman. You said they could be won someday due to demographic changes, and I was just saying given both were pretty close (Longman very much so), Labor probably could’ve won if they’d known they didn’t need to sandbag and campaign as much in the places they did.

@ Clarinet of Communists, Agree Labor did a lot of sandbagging and probably less hunting in hindsight. I am not suprised that Lindsay and Longman had a smaller swing though as i still think it is one of the demographics where Dutton would have been less unpopular namely White working class voters.

The thing I was quite surprised at was that Labor preselected Rhiannyn Douglas at the same time as Ali France, Rowan Holzberger etc. yet she lost here. At state level, Caboolture and Morayfield are quite strong working class Labor areas that swung quite hard in 2024 to the LNP. I would suggest Terry Young has a substantial personal vote in Longman considering he has been involved in business in the area for many years and does seem to be quite active based on his social media.

I saw that in Lismore as well as the hamlets north in the same LGA e.g. Nimbin, Dunoon, there were sizeable 2CP swings to Labor. It was mainly driven by the increased Greens primary votes. It might’ve been because of the absence of a teal candidate this time. How much did Cyclone Alfred impact the vote? Lismore was flooded.

There were similar swings in Coffs Coast but I’m not saying the cyclone drove the vote.

@Nimalan, I know that near Casino, there’s a big beef cattle industry. I think Rockhampton also takes the crown as the beef capital of Australia.

@ James,
It idd not surpise me that Labor did not do as well in Longman as in Forde, Dickson, Bonner etc. Dutton maybe more liked in Longman than his own seat of Dickson. Dickson is more white collar and educated, Forde is younger fewer retirees etc and Bonner is more middle ring and has more CALD residents.
@Votante, yeah fair point about Rockhampton, the reason i mentioned Casino and Beef is because it is the opposite of Nimbin where AJP outpolled the Nats in the past and both are in the same electorate.

Agree Nimalan, Longman would be like the seats of Lindsay or Hume being an outer suburban, ‘tradie’ type seat with a majority of residents considered as ethnically white. In contrast seats like Bonner, Dickson and Forde would be like the seats of Banks and Greenway being more middle-ring and having larger numbers of voters from CALD and/or tertiary educated backgrounds who are not that supportive of Dutton.